Konnor Griffin hasn't played a single MLB inning yet, and he's already the name every scout mentions first when the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year race comes up. This guide ranks the players most likely to hoist that trophy — and the American League counterpart — once the 2026 season wraps.
- Konnor Griffin is the top MLB Rookie of the Year candidate for 2026 on pure five-tool projection.
- Chase Burns and Hagen Smith give the pitching side of the race real depth if either sticks in a rotation.
- Sebastian Walcott and Leodalis De Vries carry the highest offensive ceilings among the shortstop class.
- Max Clark profiles as the safest hit-tool bet if Detroit hands him an Opening Day outfield spot.
- Rookie eligibility rules will decide who actually qualifies once September call-ups start piling up 2025 at-bats.
Why this matters
Rookie of the Year isn't decided by hype, it's decided by innings and at-bats — and 2026 is loaded with prospects who've already forced their way into that conversation on pure minor-league performance. Front offices don't wait on service-time games forever when a farm system this deep is knocking on the door; check the contending farm systems tracking these names for the bigger picture on when each guy actually gets the call.
The list below separates the players who are true 2026 ROY threats from the ones who are still a year away, and it ranks them by what they'd need to do to actually win the award, not just make the roster.
What makes the best MLB Rookie of the Year candidate
- Clear path to at-bats or innings — a stacked depth chart kills a ROY case before it starts.
- Elite hit tool or swing-and-miss stuff — the award goes to production, not tools alone.
- Team need — a rebuilding club hands out reps faster than a contender protecting a roster spot.
- Health and readiness — a torn UCL or a slow Triple-A start ends a campaign before Memorial Day.
- Service-time math — a prospect who racked up too many 2025 days can lose rookie status before Opening Day.
MLB Rookie of the Year candidates for 2026 at a glance
| Player | Best for | Standout tool | Key limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Konnor Griffin | Best overall five-tool ceiling | Power-speed combo at shortstop | Still needs a full pro season under his belt |
| Sebastian Walcott | Best for power-speed upside at short | Bat speed and arm strength | Strikeout rate remains a swing skill in progress |
| Chase Burns | Best for immediate rotation impact | Mid-90s fastball with a true out-pitch slider | Workload management in year one |
| Max Clark | Best for a pure hit-tool leadoff profile | Contact rate and plate discipline | Lighter raw power than the shortstops above |
| Bryce Eldridge | Best for middle-of-order power | Left-handed raw power | Limited defensive flexibility off first base |
| Leodalis De Vries | Best sleeper pick | Switch-hitting bat control | Furthest from the majors of this group |
1. Konnor Griffin: best MLB Rookie of the Year candidate overall
Griffin is a shortstop with the kind of power-speed combination scouts compare to a five-tool center fielder trapped in an infielder's body. Pittsburgh's farm system has been rebuilt around him since he signed as a first-round talent out of high school, and every public prospect list treats him as the safest bet in the sport to be a star.
Konnor Griffin pros:
- Rare blend of raw power and plus speed for a middle infielder
- Advanced feel for the strike zone relative to his age
- Multi-position flexibility that speeds up a big-league timeline
Konnor Griffin cons:
- Hasn't faced advanced pitching at the upper minor-league levels yet
- Defensive home (short vs. a corner outfield spot) still getting sorted
Best for: the reader who wants the single highest-probability ROY pick in the 2026 field. Verdict: Buy.
2. Sebastian Walcott: best MLB Rookie of the Year candidate for power-speed upside at short
Walcott signed with the Rangers as one of the highest-profile international shortstops of his signing class, and the physical projection has mostly played out — he's added strength without losing the actions that made him a top target in the first place. Texas has been patient with his timeline, which is exactly what a bat this raw needs.
Sebastian Walcott pros:
- Power projection that already grades as plus for a shortstop
- Plus arm strength that plays anywhere on the infield
- Improving pitch recognition as he's climbed the system
Sebastian Walcott cons:
- Strikeout totals still run high against advanced breaking stuff
- Texas' big-league infield picture could slow his exact call-up date
Best for: bettors who want the higher-variance, higher-ceiling name in the shortstop tier. Verdict: Buy.
3. Chase Burns: best MLB Rookie of the Year candidate for immediate rotation impact
Burns was the Reds' No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft, and he arrived with a fastball-slider combination that plays in the majors right now, not in three years. Cincinnati's rotation has been actively looking for exactly this kind of swing-and-miss arm, which shortens his path to a real workload in 2026.
Chase Burns pros:
- Fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90s with carry
- Slider grades as a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon already
- College track record against high-level competition
Chase Burns cons:
- Workload management could cap his innings early in the year
- Command still needs polish against MLB-caliber lineups
Best for: the reader tracking the pitching side of the 2026 Rookie of the Year race. Verdict: Buy.
4. Max Clark: best MLB Rookie of the Year candidate for a pure hit-tool leadoff profile
Detroit took Clark third overall in the 2023 draft off his hit tool and speed, and that's exactly what's shown up since — a contact-first outfielder built to hit near the top of a lineup rather than provide thump in the middle of it. The Tigers' outfield picture gives him a realistic runway if he keeps hitting.
Max Clark pros:
- Advanced bat-to-ball skills for his experience level
- Plus speed that plays in center field and on the bases
- Strong on-base skills that fit a leadoff role
Max Clark cons:
- Below-average raw power compared to the shortstops above him
- Center field competition in Detroit could push him to a corner
Best for: the reader who wants the safest hit-tool bet rather than a power gamble. Verdict: Hold — worth tracking spring training reps.
5. Bryce Eldridge: best MLB Rookie of the Year candidate for middle-of-order power
Eldridge came out of the 2023 draft as a first-round two-way talent, and San Francisco has leaned into developing him as a power-hitting first baseman rather than splitting his time on the mound. The left-handed raw power is the loudest tool in this entire class.
Bryce Eldridge pros:
- Standout left-handed raw power for his age
- Advanced approach for a player this new to full-season ball
- A clear organizational plan removes the two-way uncertainty
Bryce Eldridge cons:
- First base limits defensive value and roster flexibility
- Power hitters slump harder against MLB velocity early on
Best for: the reader who wants a bat-first profile with real thump. Verdict: Hold.
6. Leodalis De Vries: best MLB Rookie of the Year sleeper pick
De Vries signed with San Diego as an international prospect and has moved through the system faster than most switch-hitters his age, showing bat control from both sides of the plate that older prospects still haven't developed. He's the furthest from the majors on this list, which is exactly why he's the sleeper.
Leodalis De Vries pros:
- Switch-hitting bat control that's advanced for his age
- Strong feel for the strike zone from both sides
- Padres' middle-infield depth chart has room for him
Leodalis De Vries cons:
- Furthest from a big-league debut of anyone on this list
- Needs a full, healthy Double-A season before 2026 realistically opens up
Best for: the reader looking for next-tier value beyond the obvious names. Verdict: Wait.
How we ranked these MLB Rookie of the Year candidates
Every name here was measured against the five criteria above — path to playing time, hit tool or stuff, organizational need, health, and rookie-eligibility math. Griffin tops the list because he checks every box with the fewest question marks; De Vries sits last because his timeline is the one variable nobody controls.
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Which MLB Rookie of the Year candidate should you pick for 2026?
If you need one name for a straight bet, Konnor Griffin is the pick — the tools, the timeline, and the organizational fit line up better than anyone else in this class. If you want the pitching-side hedge, Chase Burns is the play, since a Reds rotation spot is already there for him. For value at longer odds, Sebastian Walcott and Leodalis De Vries carry the kind of upside that pays off if the bat comes as advertised. Teams looking to stock up on complementary pieces around these names should also watch the MLB Rule 5 Draft targets rebuilding clubs are circling this offseason.
FAQ
Who is the favorite for MLB Rookie of the Year in 2026?
Konnor Griffin is the favorite for the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year based on his five-tool projection and Pittsburgh's clear path to playing time. His shortstop profile combines power and speed that scouts rarely see paired together.
Is Chase Burns better than Hagen Smith for Rookie of the Year?
Chase Burns has a clearer near-term rotation path with the Reds, giving him an edge for 2026 Rookie of the Year voting over Hagen Smith. Both arms rank among the sport's top pitching prospects, but innings win the award, not raw stuff alone.
When do MLB rookies lose Rookie of the Year eligibility?
A player loses rookie status after exceeding 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on an active MLB roster before September 1 in a given season. Several 2025 September call-ups are watched closely for this exact reason heading into 2026.
Does Sebastian Walcott have a realistic shot at 2026 Rookie of the Year?
Sebastian Walcott has a realistic shot if the Rangers hand him regular at-bats and his power translates against major-league pitching. His bat speed and arm strength are already plus tools at the shortstop position.
Is Max Clark ready for the majors in 2026?
Max Clark's hit tool and speed are advanced enough to profile as MLB-ready in 2026 if Detroit's outfield picture opens a regular role for him. His path depends more on roster fit than on his own readiness.
What position gives a rookie the best shot at winning the award?
Shortstops and starting pitchers historically have the clearest path to Rookie of the Year votes because both positions generate everyday exposure. Konnor Griffin and Chase Burns both fit that pattern for the 2026 race.
How does a farm system ranking affect Rookie of the Year odds?
A stacked farm system can actually slow a prospect's path to the majors because there's more internal competition for the same roster spot. Rebuilding teams with thinner depth charts often move top prospects faster.
One last thing
The 45-day rookie-eligibility clock is the quiet variable deciding half this race — a hot September call-up in 2025 can burn enough service time to knock a player out of 2026 contention before pitchers and catchers even report. Watch the transaction wire in late August, not just the prospect rankings.
