Connor McDavid still owns the widest path to a fourth Hart Trophy, but Nathan MacKinnon, Connor Bedard and even a goaltender are crashing a race that used to be a coronation. Best overall: Connor McDavid. Best for the team-carrying MVP argument: Nathan MacKinnon. Best breakout case: Connor Bedard.
- Connor McDavid remains the safest NHL Hart Trophy candidate in 2026 on pure two-way workload.
- Nathan MacKinnon's case rests on the Colorado Avalanche collapsing without him on the ice.
- Connor Bedard is the wild card — a 20-year-old dragging a rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks roster into relevance.
- Igor Shesterkin is the longest of long shots, and goalies almost never clear that bar anymore.
- Cale Makar's crossover case with the Norris Trophy makes him a bettor's value play, not a favorite.
Why this matters
The Hart Trophy ballot isn't the scoring title. Voters reward value to a specific team, not just gaudy point totals, which is why a 90-point season on a bad roster can beat a 110-point season on a stacked one. That distinction decides a lot of NHL awards betting markets, and it's why the 2026 Hart race has more real contenders than it did a year ago.
Follow the hockey streaming guide if you're trying to catch every candidate's shifts this season — half of this debate gets settled by who you actually watch play, not who leads a stat sheet.
What makes a Hart Trophy favorite
- Team dependency — how much the roster sags when he sits
- Offensive workload — power play, five-on-five, and shootout usage combined
- Standings impact — whether his team is fighting for playoff position, not just padding a losing record
- Two-way value — voters increasingly weigh matchup difficulty, not just point totals
- Narrative momentum — a hot second half moves ballots more than a hot October
- Position scarcity — a defenseman or goalie in the mix always stands out from a crowded forward field
NHL Hart Trophy candidates for 2026 at a glance
| Candidate | Team | Best for | Standout case | Key question |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers | Best overall Hart case | Do-everything workload nobody else matches | Can his body hold up through 82 games? |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Colorado Avalanche | Best team-carrying MVP case | Avalanche offense stalls without him on the ice | Does Makar siphon voter credit? |
| Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | Best pure goal-scorer's case | Elite finishing on nearly every shift type | Does playoff scrutiny undercut a regular-season case? |
| Nikita Kucherov | Tampa Bay Lightning | Best playmaking-volume case | Sets up more than he finishes, at an elite rate | Is a veteran-led Lightning team good enough to matter? |
| Cale Makar | Colorado Avalanche | Best defenseman crossover case | Changes games from the blue line like a forward | Does he split votes with MacKinnon? |
| Connor Bedard | Chicago Blackhawks | Best breakout argument | Producing without any real supporting cast | Is a losing team's best player ever really the MVP? |
| Igor Shesterkin | New York Rangers | Best long-shot goaltender case | Backstops a team that has no business winning close games | Do voters still consider goalies at all? |
1. Connor McDavid: best NHL Hart Trophy candidate for the overall case
Connor McDavid doesn't need a hot streak to make this list — he's the default answer every time the Edmonton Oilers are relevant in April. He controls every phase of a shift: zone entries, power-play distribution, and closing minutes when the Oilers protect a lead.
Connor McDavid pros:
- Highest offensive ceiling in the league on a per-game basis
- Plays heavy special-teams minutes on both units
- Drives possession even against top defensive pairings
Connor McDavid cons:
- Voter fatigue after multiple prior Hart wins works against him
- Injury history raises real games-played risk
- Edmonton's crowded top six can dilute his individual workload argument
Best for: bettors who want the safest, most defensible Hart Trophy futures pick. Verdict: Buy.
2. Nathan MacKinnon: best case for a team-carrying MVP argument
Nathan MacKinnon is the engine, not a passenger, on a Colorado Avalanche team built to contend every single year. Strip him out of the lineup and the Avalanche offense looks ordinary — that's the exact definition voters use for value.
Nathan MacKinnon pros:
- Drives the Avalanche's top power-play unit almost single-handedly
- Elite shot volume paired with elite shot quality
- Plays in every clutch situation the coaching staff trusts
Nathan MacKinnon cons:
- Shares MVP-caliber ice time and credit with Cale Makar
- A deep Avalanche roster can make his individual burden look smaller than it is
- Playoff disappointment in prior years lingers with some voters
Best for: the argument that value means "team collapses without him." Verdict: Buy.
3. Auston Matthews: best pure goal-scorer's case
Auston Matthews wins this debate on shot quality alone. Nobody in the 2026 Hart Trophy conversation turns as many looks into goals, and the Toronto Maple Leafs lean on that finishing more than any other single skill on the roster.
Auston Matthews pros:
- Elite finishing rate across even-strength and power-play situations
- Anchors a Maple Leafs offense that has no obvious backup plan without him
- Consistent shot volume game to game
Auston Matthews cons:
- Playoff history invites skepticism from voters who weigh postseason performance
- Less of a playmaking or defensive two-way case than McDavid or MacKinnon
- A deep Leafs roster spreads offensive responsibility more than in Edmonton or Colorado
Best for: anyone framing the Hart as a pure production award. Verdict: Hold.
4. Nikita Kucherov: best playmaking-volume case
Nikita Kucherov sets the table for the Tampa Bay Lightning in a way few playmakers in the league can match — he's a assist-machine who makes complementary scorers look better than they are.
Nikita Kucherov pros:
- Elite vision and passing under pressure
- Sustains offense even when finishing around him cools off
- Experienced in high-leverage playoff hockey
Nikita Kucherov cons:
- Tampa Bay's supporting cast is older and less dynamic than in past Lightning runs
- Playmaking totals get less voter attention than pure goal-scoring
- A middling Lightning standings position hurts the narrative
Best for: readers who want an assist-first alternative to the goal-scorers above him. Verdict: Wait.
5. Cale Makar: best defenseman crossover case
Cale Makar is the rare defenseman who changes a game like a top-line forward — rushing the puck, quarterbacking the power play, and closing games defensively. That combination is exactly what got defensemen into MVP conversations decades ago.
Cale Makar pros:
- Elite transition game turns defense into offense in seconds
- Logs heavy minutes in every situation, including penalty kill
- Genuine two-way case that forwards on this list can't match
Cale Makar cons:
- Splits MVP credit with Nathan MacKinnon on the same Avalanche roster
- Defensemen rarely clear the modern Hart Trophy ballot, regardless of season quality
- Position bias among voters is real and well documented
Best for: the value bet in NHL awards markets. Verdict: Wait.
6. Connor Bedard: best breakout argument
Connor Bedard is the name that turns this from a predictable list into an actual race. At 20, he's the best player on a rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks team with almost no supporting cast, which is precisely the storyline that turns heads in March.
Connor Bedard pros:
- Elite shot release already comparable to established stars
- Producing without a true first-line running mate
- Growing narrative momentum as the season progresses
Connor Bedard cons:
- A losing Blackhawks team almost never produces an actual Hart winner
- Less complete two-way game than the veterans above him
- Sample size and consistency questions at this stage of his career
Best for: the long-shot storyline bet, not the safe pick. Verdict: Wait.
7. Igor Shesterkin: best long-shot goaltender case
Igor Shesterkin is this list's reminder that goaltenders still occasionally crash the Hart conversation when a team overachieves because of, not despite, its record between the pipes.
Igor Shesterkin pros:
- Steals points in games the New York Rangers have no business winning
- Elite rebound control and consistency night to night
- Position scarcity makes any strong goalie season stand out
Igor Shesterkin cons:
- Modern voters overwhelmingly favor skaters over goaltenders
- A single bad stretch can erase months of Hart momentum for a goalie faster than for a forward
- Team defense in front of him affects his numbers more than his own play does
Best for: bettors chasing longer NHL awards odds. Verdict: Skip.
“The Hart goes to the player whose absence would sink his team, not the one with the gaudiest highlight reel.”
How this ranking was built
Each candidate got measured against the same six criteria up top: team dependency, offensive workload, standings impact, two-way value, narrative momentum, and position scarcity. Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon clear all six. Cale Makar and Igor Shesterkin clear fewer, but their scarcity as a defenseman and goaltender respectively keeps them in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year-style crossover debates across sports.
Which NHL Hart Trophy candidate should you back in 2026?
If you want the safe, defensible pick, Connor McDavid still checks every box a Hart Trophy voter cares about. If you want value in NHL awards betting markets, Nathan MacKinnon or Connor Bedard offer more upside relative to their current odds. Everyone else on this list needs a specific scenario — a Makar-less Avalanche stretch, a Rangers goaltending miracle, a Bedard-led Blackhawks surge — to actually win the vote.
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FAQ
Who is the favorite for the 2026 Hart Trophy?
Connor McDavid is the favorite for the 2026 Hart Trophy based on his workload across five-on-five, power-play, and closing-minute situations for the Edmonton Oilers. Nathan MacKinnon and Connor Bedard are the closest challengers.
Can a defenseman win the Hart Trophy?
Yes, though it's rare — Bobby Orr won the Hart Trophy multiple times in the early 1970s as a defenseman. Cale Makar is the closest modern equivalent to that kind of two-way, game-changing blue-liner.
Has a goalie ever won the Hart Trophy?
Yes, Dominik Hasek won the Hart Trophy twice in the 1990s as a goaltender. It remains uncommon because modern voting panels lean heavily toward skaters.
Is Connor McDavid the best Hart Trophy candidate in 2026?
By workload and two-way value, yes — Connor McDavid clears every major Hart Trophy criterion this season. Nathan MacKinnon offers a stronger team-dependency argument if the Avalanche's supporting cast underperforms.
What's the difference between the Hart Trophy and the Art Ross Trophy?
The Art Ross Trophy goes strictly to the league's leading point-scorer, while the Hart Trophy goes to the player judged most valuable to his team, factoring in team success and two-way impact. A player can lead the league in scoring and still lose the Hart vote.
Does a team's playoff position affect Hart Trophy voting?
Yes, historically voters favor players on teams fighting for playoff position over players on non-competitive rosters. That's a major reason Connor Bedard's Chicago Blackhawks case is considered a long shot despite his individual production.
Can a rookie win the Hart Trophy?
It's extremely rare in modern NHL voting history. A rookie needs both elite individual production and a team success story to have any realistic shot.
One last thing
The most overlooked Hart Trophy skill in 2026 isn't goals or assists — it's penalty-kill usage. Voters increasingly notice which stars log heavy shorthanded minutes on top of full even-strength and power-play loads, and that quiet workload is exactly what separates Connor McDavid and Cale Makar from scorers who only show up on the highlight reel.
